ABSTRACT Many Arab countries have been developing in a fast pace over the last two decades. This is now seen as putting considerable pressure on the natural environment through population growth, ecosystem stress and resource extraction. The potential for climate change arising from increasing carbon dioxide emissions threatens the likelihood of a more sustainable development model being achieved in many of these countries. The paper deals with Arab countries’ population-environment nexus with respect to climate change interactions. The paper adopts the STIRPAT II model, which measures the effect of population, wealth, technology and, institution quality on the environment. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is adopted to measure the environmental impact. Both the static panel models and the dynamic heterogeneous panel models were employed to test the concept of ecological elasticity in the Arab world. The results show that the most efficient way for the Arab countries to minimize carbon emissions is to reduce population, affluence, energy intensity and enhance the institution quality. However, the Arab countries are currently on a trajectory of growing population and affluence.

中文翻译：

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阿拉伯地区的人口动态和二氧化碳排放量：扩展的STIRPAT II模型

摘要在过去的二十年中，许多阿拉伯国家都在快速发展。现在，这被视为通过人口增长，生态系统压力和资源开采给自然环境带来了巨大压力。由二氧化碳排放量增加引起的气候变化潜力威胁着许多这些国家实现更可持续发展模式的可能性。本文探讨了阿拉伯国家在气候变化互动方面的人口与环境之间的联系。本文采用STIRPAT II模型，该模型测量人口，财富，技术和机构质量对环境的影响。采用二氧化碳（CO2）排放量来衡量环境影响。静态面板模型和动态异构面板模型都被用来检验阿拉伯世界的生态弹性概念。结果表明，阿拉伯国家最有效地减少碳排放的方法是减少人口，富裕度，能源强度和提高机构质量。但是，阿拉伯国家目前正处于人口增长和富裕的轨道上。