ABSTRACT

This paper applies the econometric Chow test to determine the impact of the recent oil price decline on the GCC banking system for the period 2011–2017. Structural breaks in the performance of selected sample GCC banks, Saudi, UAE, and Qatar banks, are tested upon the occurrence of the recent oil price decline in 2014 for different aspects of bank performance: profitability, liquidity, credit quality, and capitalization. While Qatar banks are found to be resilient showing continuous performance over time, the Saudi banks are found to be significantly impacted by the decline experiencing negative structural breaks at the credit quality level but positive breaks at the capitalization level. However, UAE banks are found to have experienced negative breaks at the profitability, credit quality, and capitalization levels. The paper provides GCC banks with valuable insights about what bank aspects could be negatively impacted in the event of negative oil price shocks and what aspects could help mitigate the impact. This helps banks introduce necessary changes and preventive actions to better absorb future shocks.

摘要

本文采用计量经济学Chow检验来确定近期油价下跌对2011-2017年期间海湾合作委员会银行系统的影响。选定样本海湾合作委员会银行，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋和卡塔尔银行的业绩结构性断裂，是根据2014年近期石油价格下跌对银行业绩的不同方面进行测试的：盈利能力，流动性，信贷质量和资本化。虽然发现卡塔尔的银行具有一定的弹性，可以随着时间的推移持续表现，但沙特的银行却受到信贷质量下降的负面影响，而资本化水平却出现了正面的下跌，从而受到了重大影响。但是，发现阿联酋银行在盈利能力，信贷质量和资本水平方面经历了负增长。本文为海湾合作委员会银行提供了宝贵的见解，以了解在石油价格受到负面冲击的情况下哪些银行方面可能受到负面影响以及哪些方面可以帮助减轻这种影响。这有助于银行采取必要的措施和预防措施，以更好地吸收未来的冲击。