This paper estimates the volume of informal trade between Algeria and Mali and analyzes its determinants and mechanisms, using a multi-pronged methodology. In addition to mirror statistics analysis, we provide evidence of the importance of informal trade, drawing on satellite images and surveys with informal traders in Mali and Algeria. We estimate that the weekly turnover of informal trade fell from approximately US$2 million in 2011 to US$0.74 million in 2014, but that trade continues to play a crucial role in the economies of northern Mali and southern Algeria. We also show that official trade statistics are meaningless in this context because they capture less than 3% of total trade. Meanwhile, profit margins of 20–30% on informal trade help to explain the relative prosperity of northern Mali. Informal trade probably plays a strong role in poverty reduction, especially in the Kidal region.

中文翻译：

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阿尔及利亚-马里贸易：非正规性的常态

本文估计了阿尔及利亚和马里之间的非正式贸易量，并使用多管齐下的方法分析了其决定因素和机制。除了镜像统计分析之外，我们还利用卫星图像和与马里和阿尔及利亚的非正式商人进行的调查，提供了非正式贸易的重要性的证据。我们估计，非正式贸易的每周营业额从2011年的约200万美元下降至2014年的74万美元，但该贸易继续在马里北部和阿尔及利亚南部的经济中发挥关键作用。我们还表明，官方贸易统计数据在这种情况下毫无意义，因为它们只占总贸易的不到3％。同时，非正式贸易的利润率为20％至30％，有助于解释马里北部的相对繁荣。