ABSTRACT Oil rents are set to wane. In the MENA Region, the legacy of four decades of dependence on oil is an economy that is not generating enough opportunities for productive employment. This paper set out a policy agenda for gradual change that is cumulatively transformative. Directly, productivity can be increased by encouraging clusters of firms capable of innovation, linked to vocational training that equips a workforce with the skills that firms need. But the socio-political transformation from a rent-seeking economy to a skill-based economy is more complex, requiring both cultural and institutional change. This cannot be planned in detail: a transformation is a unique event subject to radical uncertainty. It calls for a process of rapid social learning based on experimentation. As the society adapts, new opportunities open, and the next steps clarify. I give examples of how an adaptable framework has been built elsewhere.

中文翻译：

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想法，网络和工作：巩固中东和北非的增长

摘要石油租金将下降。在中东和北非地区，对石油依赖四十年的历史遗留下来的经济体系并没有为生产性就业创造足够的机会。本文提出了渐进式变革的政策议程。直接地，可以通过鼓励具有创新能力的公司集群来提高生产率，这些集群与为员工提供公司所需技能的职业培训相联系。但是，从寻租经济到以技能为基础的经济的社会政治转变更加复杂，需要文化和制度上的变革。这不能详细计划：转换是受极端不确定性影响的独特事件。它要求在实验的基础上进行快速的社会学习。随着社会的适应，新的机遇打开，并进一步说明下一步。我举一些例子说明如何在其他地方构建适应性框架。