Middle East Development Journal ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-04 , DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1756097 Casto Martín Montero Kuscevic 1
ABSTRACT
This research investigates the relationship between output and unemployment for Lebanon for the post-civil war period. Surprisingly, our results show that unemployment is not contemporaneously affected by changes in gross domestic product (i.e. no Okun’s Law), but only after a lag; however, in the long-run total unemployment and male unemployment are inversely related to changes in output. A puzzling result is the unresponsiveness of female unemployment to GDP both in the short run and in the long-run. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, we try to shed some lights to explain this irregularity.
中文翻译:
黎巴嫩女性失业:时间序列分析
摘要
这项研究调查了内战后黎巴嫩的产出与失业之间的关系。令人惊讶的是,我们的结果表明,失业率并不受国内生产总值变化的影响(即没有奥肯定律),而只是在滞后之后才受到影响。但是,从长期来看,总失业率和男性失业率与产出的变化成反比。令人困惑的结果是,无论短期还是长期,女性失业率对国内生产总值的反应迟钝。使用自回归分布式滞后方法,我们尝试阐明一些解释这种不规则性的方法。