ABSTRACT

This research investigates the relationship between output and unemployment for Lebanon for the post-civil war period. Surprisingly, our results show that unemployment is not contemporaneously affected by changes in gross domestic product (i.e. no Okun’s Law), but only after a lag; however, in the long-run total unemployment and male unemployment are inversely related to changes in output. A puzzling result is the unresponsiveness of female unemployment to GDP both in the short run and in the long-run. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, we try to shed some lights to explain this irregularity.

中文翻译：

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黎巴嫩女性失业：时间序列分析

摘要

这项研究调查了内战后黎巴嫩的产出与失业之间的关系。令人惊讶的是，我们的结果表明，失业率并不受国内生产总值变化的影响（即没有奥肯定律），而只是在滞后之后才受到影响。但是，从长期来看，总失业率和男性失业率与产出的变化成反比。令人困惑的结果是，无论短期还是长期，女性失业率对国内生产总值的反应迟钝。使用自回归分布式滞后方法，我们尝试阐明一些解释这种不规则性的方法。