ABSTRACT This paper estimates a structural macro-econometric model of the Lebanese economy to simulate the implications of accumulated debt changes on GDP and other economic indicators, and to project the growth–fiscal nexus for the six years following the last year for which national statistics are systematically available, 2015–2020. To these ends, historical and up-to-date national accounts data for the years 1992–2014 were painstakingly collected from individual government agencies, and an economic framework with five macroeconomic blocks (macroeconomic; government; price; monetary and financial sector; and external accounts) was constructed. Our simulations predict that additional deficits and more debt accumulation would deter growth, while fiscal consolidation such as paying off government debt is growth promoting. We use the prospect of future natural gas revenues as a potential external source to pay off Lebanese national debt – rather than as a collateral for additional borrowing – in order to promote sustainable economic growth. These results have important implications for the fiscal position and macroeconomic policy in Lebanon as well as other transitional, potentially resource-rich, open economies, where debt servicing is crowding out other growth promoting government spending activities.

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针对黎巴嫩的债务：结构化宏观计量经济学模型

摘要本文估算了黎巴嫩经济的结构宏观计量经济学模型，以模拟累积债务变化对国内生产总值和其他经济指标的影响，并预测下一年国家统计数据出现后的六年的增长－财政联系。系统提供，2015-2020年。为此，我们不遗余力地从各个政府机构收集了1992-2014年的历史和最新国民账户数据，并收集了具有五个宏观经济模块（宏观经济，政府，价格，货币和金融部门以及外部）的经济框架。帐户）。我们的模拟预测，额外的赤字和更多的债务积累会阻碍经济增长，而诸如偿还政府债务之类的财政巩固将促进增长。我们将未来天然气收入的前景用作偿还黎巴嫩国家债务的潜在外部来源，而不是作为额外借款的抵押，以促进可持续的经济增长。这些结果对黎巴嫩以及其他过渡性，潜在资源丰富的开放经济体的财政状况和宏观经济政策具有重要意义，在这些经济体中，债务偿还排挤了其他促进政府支出活动的增长。