ABSTRACT

This study revisits the relationship between energy and electricity consumption with economic activity for India applying threshold vector error correction model and non-linear ARDL methods to explore their regime-driven and asymmetric dynamics for the period 1971 to 2014. The presence of threshold cointegration in the underlying relationship indicates that the nonlinear dynamics are divided into ‘normal’ and ‘extreme’ regimes. A normal regime advocates the validity of growth and feedback hypothesis for economic activity with energy and electricity consumption, respectively. But an extreme regime supports the conservation hypothesis. An asymmetric cointegrating relationship further corroborates the findings. Finally, the study proposes some actionable policy prescriptions.

摘要

本研究运用阈值矢量误差校正模型和非线性ARDL方法，重新探讨了印度在能源和电力消耗与经济活动之间的关系，以探讨其在1971年至2014年期间的制度驱动和非对称动力学。基本关系表明非线性动力学分为“正常”和“极端”两种状态。正常的制度主张增长和反馈假设分别对能源和电力消耗的经济活动的有效性。但是极端的制度支持保守性假设。不对称的协整关系进一步证实了这一发现。最后，研究提出了一些可行的政策规定。