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Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?
Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies ( IF 1.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-06 , DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2020.1720264
Sitikantha Pattanaik 1 , Silu Muduli 1 , Soumyajit Ray 2
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT This paper examines the usefulness of survey-based measures of inflation expectations to predict inflation using hybrid versions of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). While both 3 months ahead and 1-year ahead inflation expectations of households emerge statistically significant in explaining and predicting inflation in India, effectively they work as substitutes of backward looking expectations given that household expectations are found to be largely adaptive. Unlike in other countries, this paper does not find much evidence on flattening of the Phillips curve. Also, no robust evidence is found on expectations induced wage pressures influencing CPI inflation.

中文翻译:

家庭的通货膨胀预期:它们是否会影响印度的工资价格动态?

摘要本文探讨了基于调查的通胀预期指标使用新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线(NKPC)的混合版本来预测通胀的有用性。尽管在解释和预测印度的通胀方面,家庭的提前3个月和提前1年的通货膨胀预期在统计上都具有显着意义,但鉴于发现的家庭预期在很大程度上具有适应性,因此它们可以有效地替代后向预期。与其他国家不同,本文没有发现许多有关菲利普斯曲线趋平的证据。同样,没有发现有力的证据证明预期的工资压力会影响CPI通胀。
更新日期:2020-02-06
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