ABSTRACT

We introduce government investment into a real-business-cycle setup. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period 1999–2018. We then proceed to quantitatively evaluate the effect of the public capital accumulation channel as a tool for business cycle propagation, as well the importance of public investment spending on output growth. Government investment shocks, in the absence of other technological disturbances, turn out to be unable to account for observed business cycles in Bulgaria. On the other hand, government investment may be able to increase subsequent output growth, but that effect is estimated to be quite small.

中文翻译：

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公共投资对于保加利亚的商业周期波动和产出增长（1999-2018）在数量上有多重要？

摘要

我们将政府投资引入真正的商业周期设置。我们将模型校准为 1999-2018 年期间的保加利亚数据。然后，我们继续定量评估公共资本积累渠道作为商业周期传播工具的效果，以及公共投资支出对产出增长的重要性。在没有其他技术干扰的情况下，政府投资冲击无法解释保加利亚的商业周期。另一方面，政府投资或许能够带动后续的产出增长，但估计影响很小。