ABSTRACT In 2016, two high-value currency notes were withdrawn from circulation in India (popularly known as the ‘demonetization’ policy). Data from the Reserve Bank of India shows that currency in circulation has not only returned to pre-demonetization levels but has exceeded it. Despite the recent increase in use of non-cash substitutes, cash usage in India persists. We present new evidence on the association between the shadow economy, informality, and currency in circulation using annual data between 1970 and 2016. We find that high-value currency in circulation is inelastic to growth of alternate payment instruments. Implications for currency management policies are discussed.

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现金需求：印度货币需求的计量经济学模型

摘要2016年，从印度的流通中撤回了两张高价值纸币（通常称为“非货币化”政策）。印度储备银行的数据显示，流通中的货币不仅已回到非货币化之前的水平，而且已经超过了该水平。尽管最近使用非现金替代品的情况有所增加，但印度的现金使用情况仍然持续。我们使用1970年至2016年之间的年度数据，提供了影子经济，非正规性与流通货币之间关系的新证据。我们发现流通的高价值货币对替代支付工具的增长没有弹性。讨论了货币管理政策的含义。