Countries emerging from armed conflict often experience heightened violence and youth gang activity. Following the signing of peace accords with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia — People’s Army (FARC-EP), what are Colombia’s risks in terms of youth gangs? To assess these risks, this article draws from gang research and literature on post-war violence to identify six factors that recur in post-war environments and are likely to fuel a rise in gangs: illicit economies and criminal networks, exposure to violence, marginalization, social disorganization, security gaps and state responses, and former combatants. After analyzing Colombia’s risks with reference to each of these, the article concludes that the strengthening ties between youth gangs and Colombia’s illicit economies, mediated by adult-run criminal networks, increase gang numbers and violence. Moreover, some disadvantaged, urban neighborhoods are vulnerable to gang escalation due to the effects on local youths of protracted violent exposure, marginalization, and social disorganization. Finally, while ex-combatant recidivism and security gaps are prominent concerns in Colombia, they are not expected to contribute significantly to youth gang dynamics in urban areas.

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评估战后环境中的帮派风险：哥伦比亚案例

刚摆脱武装冲突的国家经常经历暴力和青年帮派活动加剧的情况。在与哥伦比亚革命武装力量 - 人民军 (FARC-EP) 签署和平协议后，哥伦比亚在青年帮派方面面临哪些风险？为了评估这些风险，本文借鉴了战后暴力的帮派研究和文献，确定了战后环境中反复出现并可能助长帮派崛起的六个因素：非法经济和犯罪网络、接触暴力、边缘化、社会解体、安全差距和国家反应，以及前战斗人员。在分析了哥伦比亚的每一个风险之后，文章得出结论，青年团伙与哥伦比亚非法经济之间的联系日益加强，在成年人经营的犯罪网络的调解下，增加帮派数量和暴力。此外，由于长期接触暴力、边缘化和社会解体对当地青年的影响，一些处于不利地位的城市社区容易受到帮派升级的影响。最后，虽然前战斗人员的累犯和安全漏洞是哥伦比亚的突出问题，但预计它们不会对城市地区的青年帮派活动产生重大影响。