The purpose of the research is to carry out the structural analysis of income and risk dynamics when considering the problem of economic growth, to obtain and apply the structural formula to assess the contribution of GDP elements to growth rate. The methodological basis of the research consists of the theory of economic growth and structural analysis, optimization methods and computer simulation (algorithmization) models of maximizing income and minimizing the total risk of N objects of the economic system. The implementation of the two stages of the research allowed us to establish that for the Russian economy the main contribution to the growth rate in the period 2003–2018 was made by gross consumption, but not by investment spending. The result of computer simulation of optimization models—maximizing income and minimizing risk is that the solution to the problem of structural choice can be an assessment of the dynamics of income and risk at a characteristic point in which different resource allocation structures give the same combination of income and risk. However, the growth rate of income and risk in the characteristic point will certainly be different, and the most acceptable option is to choose the structure that gives a positive growth rate of income and a negative growth rate of risk. This circumstance makes a significant addition to the developed macroeconomic and structural policy measures, which should be oriented not only to some static targets, but also to the impact on the dynamics of the relevant aggregated parameters—income and risk.

中文翻译：

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经济增长模型中收入和风险动态的结构分析

研究的目的是在考虑经济增长问题时进行收入和风险动态的结构分析，以获得并应用该结构公式来评估GDP要素对增长率的贡献。研究的方法论基础包括经济增长理论和结构分析，优化方法和计算机模拟（算法）模型，这些模型使收入最大化，并使经济体系中N个对象的总风险最小化。研究的两个阶段的执行使我们能够确定，对于俄罗斯经济，2003-2018年期间对增长率的主要贡献是总消费，而不是投资支出。优化模型的计算机仿真结果（使收入最大化和风险最小化）是，结构选择问题的解决方案可以是在特征点上对收入和风险的动态进行评估，在该特征点上，不同的资源分配结构给出了相同的组合收入和风险。但是，特征点上的收入和风险的增长率肯定会有所不同，最可接受的选择是选择给出正的收入增长率和负的风险增长率的结构。这种情况大大增加了已制定的宏观经济和结构性政策措施，这些措施不仅应针对某些静态目标，而且应针对对相关综合参数（收入和风险）的动态影响。