This study analyzes the impact of financial fragility on firm performance through panel data regression models. In this context, financial fragility is represented by a selected set of nine different macroeconomic indicators as independent variables which are the real exchange rate of Turkish Lira, BIST 100 index, the ratios of short-term foreign debt to long-term foreign debt, exports to imports, short-term foreign debt to international reserves as well as the ratios of current account deficit, budget deficit, net public debt and private sector foreign debt to gross domestic product, respectively. In addition, firm performance is represented by the Altman Z-Score, EBT and share price of BIST companies as dependent variables. Integrating data from 4,193 observations of 492 diverse listed companies on Borsa Istanbul with coverage from 2005 to 2017, separate regression models were constituted for each firm performance construct with selected nine indicators of the given years. Empirical findings primarily suggested that a significant relationship existed between financial fragility and firm performance based on selected representative parameters. The main findings suggest that the change in the BIST 100 index can be concluded as the most influential indicator for firm performance in terms of profitability, bankruptcy risk and share price development. Moreover, fluctuations in the real exchange rate in one period may signal for changes in share prices in the coming period.

中文翻译：

---

财务脆弱性对公司绩效的影响：对BIST公司的分析

本研究通过面板数据回归模型分析了财务脆弱性对公司绩效的影响。在这种情况下，金融脆弱性由九组不同的宏观经济指标作为独立变量来代表，这些指标是土耳其里拉的实际汇率，BIST 100指数，短期外债与长期外债的比率，出口进口，短期外债对国际储备的比率，以及经常账户赤字，预算赤字，净公共债务和私营部门外债对国内生产总值的比率。此外，公司绩效由Altman Z评分，EBT和BIST公司的股价作为因变量来表示。整合来自2005年至2017年覆盖伊斯坦布尔证券交易所的492家不同上市公司的4,193项观察数据，为每个公司绩效结构构建了单独的回归模型，并选择了给定年份的九个指标。经验发现主要表明，基于选定的代表性参数，财务脆弱性与公司绩效之间存在显着关系。主要发现表明，就盈利能力，破产风险和股价发展而言，BIST 100指数的变化可以说是对公司绩效最有影响力的指标。而且，一个时期内实际汇率的波动可能预示着下一时期股价的变化。经验发现主要表明，基于选定的代表性参数，财务脆弱性与公司绩效之间存在显着关系。主要发现表明，就盈利能力，破产风险和股价发展而言，BIST 100指数的变化可以说是对公司绩效最有影响力的指标。而且，一个时期内实际汇率的波动可能预示着下一时期股价的变化。经验发现主要表明，基于选定的代表性参数，财务脆弱性与公司绩效之间存在显着关系。主要发现表明，就盈利能力，破产风险和股价发展而言，BIST 100指数的变化可以说是对公司绩效最有影响力的指标。而且，一个时期内实际汇率的波动可能预示着下一时期股价的变化。