The primary purpose of this study is to use a non-linear fiscal reaction function approach to investigate the fiscal fatigue phenomenon in Turkey. Quarterly data for the years of 2001 through 2018 were analyzed using fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) and threshold models. The results from both the FM-OLS and threshold models provide evidence about the presence of the fiscal fatigue phenomenon in Turkey. The primary balance has minimum and maximum values at debt levels of about 30% and 80%, respectively. The primary balance begins to decrease after the maximum value is achieved; negative values are reached at a debt level of about 110%. Therefore, it is recommended that Turkey focus on fiscal sustainability and the risk of external shocks by implementing a fiscal discipline policy. In addition, a primary surplus targeting principle should be implemented, to carry out the sustainability of the liabilities and the fiscal targets.

中文翻译：

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使用长期非线性财政反应函数方法测试土耳其的财政疲劳现象

这项研究的主要目的是使用非线性财政反应函数方法研究土耳其的财政疲劳现象。使用完全修改的普通最小二乘法（FM-OLS）和阈值模型分析了2001年至2018年的季度数据。FM-OLS和阈值模型的结果都为土耳其存在财政疲劳现象提供了证据。在债务水平上，基本余额的最小值和最大值分别约为30％和80％。达到最大值后，主要余额开始减少；在约110％的债务水平下达到负值。因此，建议土耳其通过实施财政纪律政策，关注财政可持续性和外部冲击的风险。此外，