In the present study, we empirically investigate the uncertainty of the effectiveness of recent monetary policies in lowering the real mortgage rate in the U.S. In particular, we have an eye towards determining whether the Fed’s policies have been consistently effective or whether, instead, there is uncertainty regarding whether, when, and to what extent these policies achieve their ostensible goal of lowing the mortgage rate. Based upon empirical estimates of a loanable funds model, it is shown that the consistency of recent monetary policies, as reflected in the ratios of the M2 money supply to GDP and quantitative easing to GDP, has varied considerably between the study periods 1974–2009, 1974–2010, 1974–2011, 1974–2012, 1974–2013, 1974–2014, and 1974–2015, implying that there exists uncertainty regarding how consistent monetary policy effectiveness really is. This monetary policy uncertainty is even more apparent when the periods 1974–2008 and 1974–2016 are considered. Moreover, it is observed that elevated interest rate risk is a collateral effect of recent monetary policies. Interest rate risk seriously endangers the health of the macro-economy and throws future monetary policy effectiveness even further into question and yields further economic uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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美联储货币政策在美国的有效性不确定性：一项探索性的经验评估

在本研究中，我们通过经验调查了近期货币政策在降低美国实际抵押贷款利率方面的有效性的不确定性，特别是，我们着眼于确定美联储的政策是否一直有效，或者是否存在这些政策是否，何时以及在何种程度上实现了表面上降低抵押贷款利率的目标的不确定性。根据可贷资金模型的经验估计，可以看出，从1974年至2009年的研究期间，M2货币供应量与GDP的比率以及量化宽松对GDP的比率反映了近期货币政策的一致性， 1974–2010、1974–2011、1974–2012、1974–2013、1974–2014和1974–2015，这暗示着货币政策实际效果的持续性存在不确定性。当考虑1974–2008年和1974–2016年期间时，这种货币政策的不确定性就更加明显。此外，据观察，利率风险的升高是近期货币政策的附带影响。利率风险严重威胁着宏观经济的健康，使未来的货币政策有效性进一步受到质疑，并带来进一步的经济不确定性。