Abstract This study investigated the existence of the representativeness heuristic and the manifestation of overconfidence in entrepreneurs. The use of representativeness and the manifestation of overconfidence were measured with an online questionnaire answered by 62 entrepreneurs; the results were compared to a control group of 63 business managers. The respondents were randomly chosen from the business network of a business incubator at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. The data were analyzed with statistical tests and their respective confidence curves. The results of the research indicate that entrepreneurs and business managers demonstrate representativeness and overconfidence in their judgment processes. No significant differences were identified, but the evidence was somewhat stronger in the group of entrepreneurs. The results of this study prompt reflections on the use of heuristics and biases in the judgment and decision-making processes regarding business creation and management. More specifically, angel investors and venture capitalists who consider the results of this research in their business models may improve their rates of success.

中文翻译：

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企业家的代表性和过度自信偏向启发法

摘要这项研究调查了企业家中代表性启发式的存在和过度自信的表现。代表性的使用和过度自信的表现由在线问卷调查，由62位企业家回答；将结果与63名业务经理的对照组进行了比较。受访者是从里约热内卢联邦大学的企业孵化器的企业网络中随机选择的。数据通过统计检验及其各自的置信度曲线进行分析。研究结果表明，企业家和业务经理在判断过程中表现出代表性和过度自信。没有发现明显的差异，但是在企业家群体中证据更为充分。这项研究的结果促使人们反思在企业创建和管理的判断和决策过程中使用启发式方法和偏见。更具体地说，在其商业模式中考虑这项研究结果的天使投资者和风险资本家可能会提高其成功率。