This article studies the correlation between world oil prices and the selected Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic variables using the method of vector autoregression (VAR). As expected, the macroeconomic variables under consideration demonstrate a significant correlation with oil price fluctuations. However, the results of the research show a certain discrepancy with the earlier researches, which considered previous negative oil price shock of 2008 in the form of quicker reaction to such shocks. This means that the dependence of Kazakh economy on oil price fluctuations increased since the previous oil price plunge1. In this regard, it is worth pointing out that none of these researches targeted the relationship between oil prices and Kazakh macro-economy after June 2014, when the last oil price shock began. Another important result is the timeframe during which the influence of oil price shocks is actually significant. These results are important for understanding the processes happening in the economies of Kazakhstan and other oil-exporting countries.

中文翻译：

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石油价格冲击对某些哈萨克斯坦宏观经济指标的影响

本文使用向量自回归（VAR）方法研究了世界石油价格与选定的哈萨克斯坦宏观经济变量之间的相关性。不出所料，正在考虑的宏观经济变量显示出与石油价格波动的显着相关性。但是，研究结果与早期的研究存在一定的差异，早期的研究认为2008年以前的负面油价冲击是以对这种冲击的更快反应的形式。这意味着自上次油价暴跌以来，哈萨克斯坦经济对油价波动的依赖性增加了。在这方面，值得指出的是，这些研究都没有针对2014年6月最后一次石油价格冲击开始后的油价与哈萨克斯坦宏观经济之间的关系。另一个重要结果是时间表，在此期间，石油价格冲击的影响实际上是很大的。这些结果对于了解哈萨克斯坦和其他石油出口国经济中正在发生的过程非常重要。