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Trust cycle of the finance sector and its determinants: The case of Ukraine
Journal of International Studies Pub Date : 2019-12-01 , DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-4/20
Maryna Brychko , Jiří Polách , Olha Kuzmenko , Tadeusz Olejarz

The paper presents the results of exploring the characteristics of trust cycle in the financial sector of the economy in general and across its main components (trust in banking and non-bank financial and credit systems) illustrated by the economy in transition Ukraine for the period 1st quarter 2009 1st quarter 2018. Determinants of nonlinear dynamics of public trust in the financial sector of the economy were also identified. For this purpose, an algorithm has been developed that enables studying the cyclical nature of public trust in the financial sector and testing the hypotheses about the determinants of its nonlinear dynamics. To highlight the cyclical component of the time series, harmonic analysis via Fourier transformations was used. In order to analyze public trust in the financial sector and its main components the following indicators were used: absolute volatility, relative volatility (in relation to financial and business cycles), the persistence of actual values and cyclic components, correlation with financial and business cycles. Our main Received: December, 2018 1st Revision: May, 2019 Accepted: November, 2019 DOI: 10.14254/20718330.2019/12-4/20 Journal of International Studies S ci en ti fi c P a pe rs © Foundation of International Studies, 2019 © CSR, 2019 Maryna Brychko, Jiří Polách, Olha Kuzmenko, Tadeusz Olejarz Trust cycle and its determinants: The case of Ukraine 301 result is that trust in the banking system has a greater cyclical amplitude than the national economy, the financial sector of the economy, and psychological dimensions of economic agents (a propensity to save and financial savings). High volatility of trust in the banking system indicates that any news or an event could lead to destabilization processes, ignoring of which may lead to a banking crisis.

中文翻译:

金融部门的信任周期及其决定因素:以乌克兰为例

本文介绍了探索总体经济及其整个主要组成部分(对银行及非银行金融和信贷系统的信任)中的信任周期特征的结果,该周期由乌克兰转型时期的经济在第一阶段进行了说明。 2009年第一季度,2018年第一季度。还确定了经济金融部门公众信任的非线性动力学的决定因素。为此,已经开发了一种算法,该算法能够研究金融部门公共信任的周期性,并检验有关其非线性动力学决定因素的假设。为了突出时间序列的周期性分量,使用了通过傅立叶变换进行谐波分析。为了分析公众对金融部门及其主要组成部分的信任,使用了以下指标:绝对波动性,相对波动性(与金融和商业周期有关),实际价值和周期性成分的持续性,与金融和商业周期的相关性。主要接收人:2018年12月第一次修订:2019年5月接受:2019年11月DOI:10.14254 / 20718330.2019 / 12-4 / 20国际研究科学院学报©国际研究基金会,2019 ©CSR,2019 Maryna Brychko,JiříPolách,Olha Kuzmenko,Tadeusz Olejarz信任周期及其决定因素:乌克兰301案的结果是,对银行体系的信任比国家经济,经济金融部门的周期性波动更大,经济主体的心理层面(储蓄和金融储蓄的倾向)。银行系统中信任度的高度波动表明,任何新闻或事件都可能导致不稳定的过程,而忽略这些过程可能会导致银行业危机。
更新日期:2019-12-01
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