With the implementation of the Russian import ban as a countermeasure to the EU sanctions in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, trade relations between the EU and Russia reached their lowest level in 2014. In this paper, we model several trade policy scenarios and assess their effects on domestic agricultural production and trade in Russia, the EU and Germany for the 2020-30 period. The results of the applied general equilibrium MAGNET model suggest that the removal of the Russian food import ban will affect Russian agricultural production to a limited extent only, while there will be no effect on the EU. In contrast, depending on how competitive Russian farmers’ become, the creation of a large free trade area from Lisbon to Vladivostok would generally benefit farmers in the EU more than farmers in Russia.

中文翻译：

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从俄罗斯食品进口禁令到从里斯本到符拉迪沃斯托克的自由贸易-农民会从中受益吗？

在乌克兰危机的背景下，随着俄罗斯实施进口禁令作为对付欧盟制裁的对策，欧盟与俄罗斯之间的贸易关系达到了2014年的最低水平。在本文中，我们对几种贸易政策情景进行了建模并对其进行了评估。 2020-30年期间对俄罗斯，欧盟和德国国内农业生产和贸易的影响。应用的一般均衡MAGNET模型的结果表明，取消俄罗斯食品进口禁令只会在一定程度上影响俄罗斯的农业生产，而不会对欧盟产生影响。相反，根据俄罗斯农民的竞争能力，从里斯本到符拉迪沃斯托克的大型自由贸易区的建立通常会给欧盟农民带来比俄罗斯农民更多的利益。