The paper contributes to a discussion on developments in output for the EU-27 group over the next 11 years, up to year 2030. It departs from a discussion on arguments of the production function, with focus on sudden changes to population in Europe, its growth rate and composition. A brief study of population-decreasing events in the European historical perspective may represent an inspiring part. Reasons for inconsistency in estimated parameters of production function for European countries seems to be well-explained this way. The projection for the next 11 years, up to 2030 has employed the production function framework. Parameters have been estimated on the period 2004 – 2016 that matches most closely conditions that one may expect over the projection horizon. Feeding the estimated production function for the 2018-2030 forecast has employed projected population by Eurostat, while private capital investment has been generated by an ARIMA model. Projection is offered in two forms: (1) aggregated real output for the whole EU, and (2) the same category for each of the EU-27 countries.

中文翻译：

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到2030年欧洲联盟的经济增长预测

该文件有助于讨论欧盟27国集团在未来11年（至2030年）的产出发展。它脱离了对生产函数论点的讨论，重点是欧洲人口的突然变化，增长率和组成。从欧洲历史的角度对人口减少事件进行简短的研究可能是一个鼓舞人心的部分。用这种方法可以很好地解释欧洲国家生产函数的估计参数不一致的原因。对未来11年（到2030年）的预测已采用了生产功能框架。在2004年至2016年期间对参数进行了估计，这些参数最符合人们在预测范围内可能期望的条件。欧盟统计局使用了预计的人口作为2018-2030年预测的估计生产函数的供给，而ARIMA模型则产生了私人资本投资。提供两种形式的预测：（1）整个欧盟的实际总产量；（2）欧盟27个国家/地区的同一类别。