ABSTRACT

Predicting the future of college radio is no easy task. There are a lot of factors to consider. If you are going to attempt to make predictions, it helps to have people who are knowledgeable and experienced with the subject. In 2003, a study in the Journal of Radio Studies (precursor to JRAM), employed a Delphi Method to gather the thoughts and opinions of college radio advisors on the future of the medium. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now have a look at the success rate of their prognostications. The 2003 study presented several areas of investigation, before ultimately indicating five main trends. The present study utilizes secondary analysis and observation in an attempt to evaluate the predictions. The limitations of the Delphi Method in the first study are noted, as is the lack of data availability in providing a thorough review for the present study. Nevertheless, presented here is a review of the predicted trends from 2003. How did they do?

摘要

预测大学广播的未来并非易事。有很多因素需要考虑。如果您要尝试做出预测，那么拥有对该主题知识渊博且经验丰富的人会有所帮助。2003年，在《无线电研究杂志》上的一项研究（JRAM 的前身），采用德尔菲法收集大学广播顾问对媒体未来的想法和意见。事后看来，我们现在可以看看他们预测的成功率。2003 年的研究提出了几个调查领域，最终指出了五个主要趋势。本研究利用二次分析和观察来评估预测。注意到第一项研究中德尔菲法的局限性，以及在为本研究提供全面审查时缺乏数据可用性。然而，这里介绍的是对 2003 年预测趋势的回顾。他们是怎么做的？