As the COVID-19 pandemic upended the 2019–2020 school year, education systems scrambled to meet the needs of students and families with little available data on how school closures may impact learning. In this study, we produced a series of projections of COVID-19-related learning loss based on (a) estimates from absenteeism literature and (b) analyses of summer learning patterns of 5 million students. Under our projections, returning students are expected to start fall 2020 with approximately 63 to 68% of the learning gains in reading and 37 to 50% of the learning gains in mathematics relative to a typical school year. However, we project that losing ground during the school closures was not universal, with the top third of students potentially making gains in reading.

中文翻译：

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预测 COVID-19 学校停课对学业成绩的潜在影响

随着 COVID-19 大流行颠覆了 2019-2020 学年，教育系统争先恐后地满足学生和家庭的需求，但关于学校停课可能如何影响学习的可用数据很少。在这项研究中，我们根据 (a) 旷工文献的估计和 (b) 500 万学生的暑期学习模式分析，对 COVID-19 相关的学习损失做出了一系列预测。根据我们的预测，与典型学年相比，预计返校学生将在 2020 年秋季开始阅读大约 63% 至 68% 的学习收益和 37% 至 50% 的数学学习收益。但是，我们预计学校停课期间的失势并不普遍，前三分之一的学生可能会在阅读方面有所收获。