Land use and coverage surveys show that 30.5% of Brazil's territory was dedicated to the production of food, fibers, biofuels, and raw materials. This paper fills a gap and provides information to society and decision-makers about the effectiveness of the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) principles with zero tillage (ZT/CA) and integrated crop–livestock–forest (iCLF-CA) systems as the central policies to mitigate soil erosion, the main agent of land degradation and productivity loss. The increase in CA area by 2030 was estimated using Holt's damped technique for ZT/CA and simple linear models for iCLF-CA. The annual potential for soil erosion with intensive conventional tillage and monocropping, considering land use and cover in 2017, is 3.0 billion tons. The economic impact, based only on replacement of nutrient losses, is estimated to be 15.7 billion US$ yr⁻¹. To control soil erosion by water, to intensify agricultural production, and mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions are the goals of the PRONASOLOS, a national program for detailed soil survey and interpretation. The annual economic impact of the adoption of CA principles by controlling soil erosion was estimated at 1.5 billion US$ for ZT/CA in 2017 and 0.5 billion US$ for iCLF-CA in 2015. The future increase of the CA area was forecast at 34.4 and 25.4 Mha for ZT/CA and iCLF-CA, respectively. The positive impacts of the adoption of CA principles in Brazil are the result of the determination of farmers, among many actors, and of the effectiveness of government plans and policies.

中文翻译：

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基于保护性农业原则的计划和政策对巴西土壤侵蚀控制的潜在影响

土地利用和覆盖率调查显示，巴西 30.5% 的领土专门用于生产食品、纤维、生物燃料和原材料。本文填补了一个空白，并为社会和决策者提供了关于采用保护性农业 (CA) 原则的有效性的信息，其中零耕 (ZT/CA) 和作物-牲畜-森林综合 (iCLF-CA) 系统作为减轻土壤侵蚀的中央政策，土壤侵蚀是土地退化和生产力损失的主要因素。使用 Holt 的 ZT/CA 阻尼技术和 iCLF-CA 的简单线性模型估计到 2030 年 CA 面积的增加。考虑到 2017 年的土地利用和覆盖，集约化常规耕作和单一作物的年水土流失潜力为 30 亿吨。经济影响，仅基于营养损失的替代，^-1。控制水土流失、加强农业生产和减少温室气体排放是 PRONASOLOS 的目标，这是一个详细的土壤调查和解释的国家计划。2017 年 ZT/CA 采用 CA 原则控制土壤侵蚀的年度经济影响估计为 15 亿美元，2015 年为 iCLF-CA 5 亿美元。CA 面积的未来增长预计为 34.4 ZT/CA 和 iCLF-CA 分别为 25.4 Mha。在巴西采用 CA 原则的积极影响是农民和许多参与者的决心以及政府计划和政策有效性的结果。