The Latinx population is the second largest ethnic group in the United States. In Texas, nearly two fifths of the population is classified as Latinx, and Latinx persons make up over 28 percent of the state’s eligible voters. Yet, both in Texas and nationwide, Latinx turnout is consistently and disproportionately low compared to other ethnic groups. Consequently, Latinx persons are often viewed, collectively, as a “sleeping giant” in U.S. politics—the group’s weighty presence in the population has yet to make its full imprint on the ballot box. This article draws on data for the 2016 presidential election to gain insights into the electoral geography of Latinx voter turnout in Texas. Crucially, we estimate the extent to which the presence and density of certain formal social institutions vary systematically with county-level Latinx turnout, after controlling for common determinants of voting behavior. Employing a combination of King’s ecological inference and weighted least squares regression, we find that place-based community organizations have a significant, positive relationship with Latinx turnout after accounting for common socioeconomic variables. These findings have important implications for policy and research, because they suggest a potential leverage point for waking a “sleeping giant” for future elections.

拉丁美洲人口是美国第二大族裔。在得克萨斯州，近五分之二的人口被归为拉丁裔，拉丁裔占该州合格选民的28％以上。然而，在得克萨斯州和全国范围内，与其他种族相比，拉丁裔的投票率一直偏低。因此，拉丁裔人士通常被集体视为美国政治中的“沉睡巨人”，该组织在人口中的重要地位尚未在投票箱上完全体现出来。本文借鉴了2016年总统大选的数据，以洞悉德克萨斯州拉丁裔选民的投票地理。至关重要的是，我们估计某些正式的社会机构的存在和密度随县级拉丁文投票人数的变化而系统地变化，在控制投票行为的共同决定因素之后。通过结合King的生态推断和加权最小二乘回归，我们发现在考虑了常见的社会经济变量之后，基于地点的社区组织与Latinx投票率有着显着的正相关关系。这些发现对政策和研究具有重要意义，因为它们为唤醒未来选举中的“沉睡的巨人”提供了潜在的杠杆作用点。