ABSTRACT It is not easy to understand why some African party systems manage to stabilise while others remain fluid. This article argues that institutional choices made during democratic transition impact the likelihood of party system stabilisation. The experiences of Cabo Verde, Comoros, São Tomé and Príncipe and Seychelles are compared; despite sharing many similarities (insularity, smallness, low ethnic diversity, authoritarian past, economic vulnerability and competitive elections), they differ substantively in terms of the patterns of interparty competition. It is shown that stabilisation is likely if party elites are able to control the rules of the game during the transition to democracy. A strategic choice of the party law, electoral system and executive system helps structure interactions over time and reduce uncertainty in electoral competition. The findings highlight the need to further explore the ‘black box’ of democratic transitions, and the role of agency in political outcomes in Africa.

中文翻译：

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向民主、制度选择和政党制度稳定性的过渡：来自非洲小岛的教训

摘要 要理解为什么一些非洲政党制度能够稳定下来而其他政党制度却仍然不稳定，这并不容易理解。本文认为，民主转型期间做出的制度选择会影响政党制度稳定的可能性。比较佛得角、科摩罗、圣多美和普林西比和塞舌尔的经验；尽管有许多相似之处（狭隘、狭小、种族多样性低、过去威权主义、经济脆弱性和竞争性选举），但它们在党派间竞争模式方面存在实质性差异。结果表明，如果政党精英能够在向民主过渡的过程中控制游戏规则，则稳定是可能的。党法的战略选择，选举制度和执行制度有助于随着时间的推移构建互动并减少选举竞争的不确定性。调查结果强调需要进一步探索民主转型的“黑匣子”，以及机构在非洲政治结果中的作用。