ABSTRACT To adjust for underreporting of marijuana use, researchers multiply the proportion of individuals who reported using marijuana by a constant factor, such as the US Office of National Drug Control Policy’s 1.3. Although the current adjustments are simple, they do not account for changes in reporting over time. This article presents a novel way to explore relative changes in reporting from one survey to another simply by using data already available in a self-reported survey, the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Using domain estimation to examine the stability in reported marijuana use by age 25 in individuals older than 25, this analysis provides estimates of the trends in marijuana reporting and standard errors, as long as the survey weights properly account for sampling variability. There was no significant evidence of an upward or downward trend in reporting changes from 1979 to 2016 for all birth cohorts, although there were significant differences in reporting between years and a slight downward trend in later years. These results suggest that individuals have become increasingly less willing to report their drug use in recent years, and thus the ONDCP likely underestimated the already drastic increase in use from 1992 to 2016.

中文翻译：

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美国大麻消费自我报告的趋势

摘要为了对少报使用大麻的情况进行调整，研究人员将举报使用大麻的个人比例乘以一个常数，例如美国国家药物管制政策办公室的1.3。尽管当前的调整很简单，但它们并未考虑报告随时间的变化。本文提出了一种新颖的方法，只需使用自我报告的调查（国家毒品使用和健康调查）中已有的数据，即可探索从一项调查到另一项调查的报告中的相对变化。使用域估计来检查25岁以上个人在25岁之前报告的大麻使用情况的稳定性，只要调查权重正确地说明了抽样变异性，此分析就可以估计大麻报告和标准误的趋势。1979年至2016年期间，所有出生队列的报告变化都没有明显的上升或下降趋势，尽管各年之间的报告存在显着差异，而后几年则略有下降。这些结果表明，近年来个人越来越不愿意报告其药物使用情况，因此ONDCP可能低估了1992年至2016年使用量的急剧增加。