Using an ensemble of redistricting plans, we evaluate whether a given political districting faithfully represents the geo-political landscape. Redistricting plans are sampled by a Monte Carlo algorithm from a probability distribution that adheres to realistic and non-partisan criteria. Using the sampled redistricting plans and historical voting data, we produce an ensemble of elections that reveal geo-political structure within the state. We showcase our methods on the two most recent districtings of NC for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a plan drawn by a bipartisan redistricting panel. We find the two state enacted plans are highly atypical outliers whereas the bipartisan plan accurately represents the ensemble both in partisan outcome and in the fine scale structure of district-level results.

中文翻译：

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量化北卡罗莱纳州的Gerrymandering

使用一组重新划分的计划，我们评估给定的政治区位是否忠实地代表了地缘政治景观。重新划分计划是通过蒙特卡罗算法从符合现实和无党派标准的概率分布中采样的。使用抽样的重新划区计划和历史投票数据，我们产生了一个显示国家内部地缘政治结构的选举集合。我们在美国众议院北卡罗来纳州的两个最新分区中展示了我们的方法，以及由两党重新划分专家组制定的计划。我们发现，两个州制定的计划都是高度非典型的异常值，而两党计划则可以在党派结果和地区级结果的精细规模结构中准确地代表整体。