Abstract Population decline is currently a serious problem in Japan. In this study, the population change rates of municipalities in the Nagasaki Prefecture were examined using a classification of the resident characteristics of small areas. A total of 14 variables were selected from the small area data of the 2015 census to examine the resident characteristics of the small areas, and these variables were analyzed via factor and cluster analyses. As a result, the variables were classified into six resident characteristic clusters. The classified resident characteristics are Cluster 1: urban professionals, Cluster 2: nuclear families with children living in rental housing, Cluster 3: areas without residents, Cluster 4: blue-collar workers, Cluster 5: manufacturing and industry workers, and Cluster 6: typical farmers. We conducted a regression analysis using the population change rate in each municipality as a response variable and each of the six regions classified in the municipalities as the explanatory variable. We found that Cluster 2 has the greatest influence on the population growth rate. We examined the distribution of each regional classification. It is suggested that the areas classified as Cluster 2 are often distributed in areas outside densely inhabited districts and that emerging residential areas for nuclear family households with children are formed in the suburbs of cities. Municipalities with a high proportion of Cluster 2 are likely to be commuting towns in the Nagasaki and Sasebo employment metropolitan areas, suggesting that the population reduction rate is low due to the accumulation of residents from surrounding areas.

中文翻译：

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人口变化与居民特征的关系：以日本长崎县为例

摘要 人口减少是目前日本的一个严重问题。在这项研究中，使用小区域居民特征的分类检查了长崎县内市镇的人口变化率。从2015年人口普查的小区域数据中，共选取14个变量来考察小区域的居民特征，并通过因子分析和聚类分析对这些变量进行分析。结果，变量被分为六个常驻特征集群。归类的居民特征是第1组：城市专业人士，第2组：有孩子住在出租屋的核心家庭，第3组：没有居民的地区，第4组：蓝领工人，第5组：制造业和工业工人，第6组：典型的农民。以各直辖市的人口变化率为响应变量，以直辖市划分的6个地区为解释变量，进行回归分析。我们发现集群 2 对人口增长率的影响最大。我们检查了每个区域分类的分布。建议归类为Cluster 2的地区往往分布在人口稠密地区以外的地区，有孩子的核心家庭的新兴居住区形成在城市郊区。集群 2 比例高的市镇很可能是长崎和佐世保就业都市区的通勤城镇，这表明由于周边地区居民的聚集，人口减少率较低。