ABSTRACT

This study extended prior findings examining traditional with cross-national time-series data analyses in sequences of Granger causality tests to examine the democratizing effects of internet and mobile phone diffusion through 2014. In this context, Media System Dependency (MSD) theory has suggested that in countries with high media diffusion or high sociopolitical instability, such emerging media diffusion should Granger cause democracy. However, no such relationships were observed when studying emerging media technology in the form of mobile phones or online access. Mobile diffusion was, however, observed to Granger cause sociopolitical instability in countries with high and low sociopolitical instability alike, as well as in countries with low media diffusion. These findings suggest that the diffusion of emerging media to date has not necessarily demonstrated the same democratizing capacity that MSD theory has previously ascribed to traditional media diffusion, and that any effects are indirect.

摘要

本研究扩展了先前在格兰杰因果检验序列中检验传统跨国时间序列数据分析的发现，以检验 2014 年互联网和手机普及的民主化效应。在这种情况下，媒体系统依赖 (MSD) 理论表明在媒体传播高或社会政治不稳定的国家，这种新兴的媒体传播应该是格兰杰造成的民主。然而，在研究以手机或在线访问形式出现的新兴媒体技术时，并没有观察到这种关系。然而，格兰杰观察到移动传播在社会政治不稳定性高低的国家以及媒体传播低的国家都会导致社会政治不稳定。