ABSTRACT

Disease does not only affect development through its contemporaneous impact on health, but also through its enduring historical effect through its shaping of culture and institutions. By drawing on the experience of historical pandemics, we argue that some of the current stringent approaches adopted in combating COVID-19 come at the expense of social capital (trust) and institutions (checks on government power), which hold back long-run development. We review the evidence that the Black Death intensified witchcraft beliefs and antisemitism, which, in turn, developed mistrust and exerted an adverse influence on present-day development. Finally, we demonstrate that institutions and culture have greater explanatory power in terms of cross-country infection rates and fatality rates than does health care quality.

摘要

疾病不仅通过对健康的同时影响而影响发展，而且通过其对文化和制度的塑造而通过其持久的历史影响。借鉴历史大流行的经验，我们认为，目前与COVID-19对抗所采用的一些严格方法是以牺牲社会资本（信任）和机构（检查政府权力）为代价的，这阻碍了长期发展。我们回顾了有关“黑死病”加剧巫术信仰和反犹太主义的证据，这反过来又引起了不信任，并对当今的发展产生了不利影响。最后，我们证明与卫生保健质量相比，机构和文化在跨国感染率和死亡率方面具有更大的解释力。