ABSTRACT

Using panel data on 172 countries from 1960 to 2019, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on economic growth and explores the underlying mechanisms. We find that the aging of the population significantly reduces the economic growth rate: when the population over age 65 increases by 1 percentage point, the per capita economic growth rate decreases by 2.6 percentage points. We examine four channels through which population aging may affect economic growth and find that three channels play significant roles: capital accumulation, labor supply, and economic structure, while technological progress and human capital accumulation do not seem to be significant. We also find significant heterogeneity in the impact across countries at different income levels: the effects are statistically significant for middle-income and high-income countries, but not for low-income countries.

摘要

本文利用1960-2019年172个国家的面板数据，实证分析了人口老龄化对经济增长的影响，并探讨了其背后的机制。我们发现人口老龄化显着降低了经济增长率：65岁以上人口每增加1个百分点，人均经济增长率就会下降2.6个百分点。我们考察了人口老龄化可能影响经济增长的四个渠道，发现三个渠道发挥了重要作用：资本积累、劳动力供给和经济结构，而技术进步和人力资本积累似乎并不显着。我们还发现，不同收入水平的国家之间的影响存在显着异质性：