ABSTRACT This article first reviews key developments in the Quebec natural gas fracking timeline from initial exploratory well fracking in 2007 to the 2011 moratorium and the 2018 fracking prohibition. Next, the article estimates potential jobs and wealth losses from the prohibition in Quebec via a comparison between intensive fracking in northeastern Pennsylvania (which is similar in size to Quebec’s core potential fracking region) and adjacent counties in New York state where fracking is prohibited. Quebec’s job loss from fracking prohibition is estimated to be quite modest. Moreover, the estimated wealth effect range shows that allowing development of Quebec’s shale gas reserves may well have led to net wealth losses rather than gains for its citizens because of large declines in natural gas prices. While future shale gas development in Quebec is a possibility, given the preferences of Quebec’s citizens, the weak profitability prospects of the shale gas sector, and the ongoing cost reductions for solar and wind power, it seems most likely that Quebec’s Utica Shale gas reserves will remain undeveloped and that this will be a sound policy decision.

中文翻译：

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魁北克的水力压裂限制：浪费机会还是谨慎保护？

摘要 本文首先回顾了魁北克天然气压裂时间表的关键发展，从 2007 年的初始勘探井压裂到 2011 年的暂停和 2018 年的压裂禁令。接下来，文章通过比较宾夕法尼亚州东北部的密集水力压裂（与魁北克的核心潜在水力压裂区的规模相似）与纽约州禁止水力压裂的邻近县之间的比较，估计了魁北克禁令可能造成的就业和财富损失。魁北克省因水力压裂禁令造成的失业估计相当温和。此外，估计的财富效应范围表明，由于天然气价格大幅下跌，允许开发魁北克页岩气储量很可能导致其公民的净财富损失而不是收益。