We examined whether the elasticities of Korean exports with respect to global GDP and to the exchange rate vary depending on exports’ expansionary or contractionary regimes. Our empirical analysis incorporated regime changes and cointegration into a multivariable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model. Our estimation results revealed asymmetries in the short‐run elasticities of Korea's exports between the two regimes, although their long‐run elasticities remain stable. The positive effect of global GDP on Korea's exports is inelastic during contractionary regimes but elastic in expansionary regimes. The effect of home currency appreciation is negative and elastic under expansionary regimes but positive and inelastic under contractionary regimes.

中文翻译：

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跨地区贸易弹性会有所不同吗？来自韩国出口的新证据，纳入了制度变更*

我们研究了韩国出口相对于全球GDP和汇率的弹性是否随出口的扩张或收缩机制而变化。我们的经验分析将制度变化和协整关系纳入了多变量平滑过渡自回归向量误差校正模型。我们的估计结果显示，尽管韩国和朝鲜的长期弹性保持稳定，但两国在短期内的弹性不对称。全球GDP对韩国出口的积极影响在收缩体制中没有弹性，而在扩张体制中则具有弹性。在扩张体制下，本币升值的影响是消极的和有弹性的，而在收缩体制下的本国货币升值的影响却是无力的。