A better understanding of financial contagion and systemically important financial markets will help market participants capture market information and assist regulators in preventing financial crises. We propose a ripple network based collective spillover effect approach to model the spread of financial contagion and analyze the systemic importance of financial markets. The crude oil market is taken as the source of financial contagion, and we analyze the path of the spread of contagion and systemic importance of 22 international financial markets. The empirical results show that financial contagion arising from the oil market spreads first to developed markets and then to developing markets. Thus, developed markets show the highest systemic importance, followed by developing markets, in the ripple-spreading process of financial contagion. Moreover, in terms of regions, the European and American markets have higher risk influence, but Asian markets have higher risk pressure.

更好地了解金融传染和具有系统重要性的金融市场将有助于市场参与者获取市场信息并协助监管机构预防金融危机。我们提出了一种基于涟漪网络的集体溢出效应方法来模拟金融传染的传播并分析金融市场的系统重要性。以原油市场为金融传染源，我们分析了22个国际金融市场的传染传播路径和系统重要性。实证结果表明，石油市场引发的金融传染首先向发达市场蔓延，然后向发展中市场蔓延。因此，在金融传染的涟漪扩散过程中，发达市场表现出最高的系统重要性，其次是发展中市场。