Abstract. Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable to climate change effects and within these systems, agriculture is one of the most potentially affected sectors. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for helping the decision-making process at a local level, addressing two risks that affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins: the unavailability of fresh water for irrigation resulting from the upstream propagation of estuarine brackish water during droughts, and land inundation by high water levels associated with high tides and storm surges. For each risk, quantitative consequence descriptors are presented to support risk level determination and evaluation through a continuous consequence/probability diagram. The approach applicability is discussed through its application to the Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira, located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results indicate that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk. The flexibility of the approach to be adapted to local conditions and updated through time, and the ease of its application by the risk owner can be pointed out as the main strengths.

中文翻译：

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农业地区的洪水和干旱风险评估（葡萄牙塔霍河口）

摘要。河口是沿海系统，特别容易受到气候变化影响，在这些系统中，农业是受影响最大的部门之一。本文提出了一种风险评估方法，以帮助地方一级的决策过程，解决了影响河口边缘农业地区的两个风险：干旱期间河口苦咸水向上游传播导致淡水无法灌溉；以及由于涨潮和风暴潮造成的高水位淹没土地。对于每种风险，提出了定量后果描述符，以通过连续的后果/概率图支持风险水平的确定和评估。通过将其应用于LezíriaGrande de Vila Franca de Xira，位于塔霍河口（葡萄牙）。结果表明，该方法适合于支持风险所有者采取行动来减轻风险。可以指出，该方法的灵活性可以适应当地情况并随时间进行更新，其主要优点是可以指出风险所有者易于实施。