Precipitation data from four weather stations in Bavaria, Germany, situated at the northern edge of the Alps have been evaluated for the period 1901 to 2019. Decadal changes have been computed as sliding 30‑year averages and as the difference between the 30‑year periods 1990–2019 and 1901–1930. The annual precipitation at these four stations increases, fitting in magnitude roughly to the temperature increase in the course of global warming. The number of dry days slightly increases as well as a consequence of a northward shift of the storm tracks over Europe. Due to these two features the precipitation intensity on wet days increases. The increase in maximum daily precipitation amounts is less than the increase in the annual precipitation amount. The observed maximum daily precipitation in the full four datasets is 138.5 mm at the station Hohenpeißenberg in 1999. The length of dry spells is increasing at three of the four stations as well. The overall observed precipitation patterns fit to the findings of regional climate model simulations for future climate scenarios for this region. Thus, they can be interpreted as signs that climate change is well underway in Southern Bavaria as it is in most places of the world.

中文翻译：

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阿尔卑斯山北缘年代际降水变化分析

对 1901 年至 2019 年期间德国巴伐利亚州位于阿尔卑斯山北部边缘的四个气象站的降水数据进行了评估。 年代际变化计算为 30 年滑动平均值和 30 年期间之间的差异1990-2019 年和 1901-1930 年。这四个站点的年降水量增加，其幅度与全球变暖过程中的温度升高大致相符。由于欧洲上空的风暴路径向北移动，干旱天数略有增加。由于这两个特征，潮湿天的降水强度增加。最大日降水量的增加小于年降水量的增加。在全部四个数据集中观测到的最大日降水量为 138。1999 年在 Hohenpeißenberg 站增加了 5 毫米。四个站中的三个站的旱情持续时间也在增加。观测到的总体降水模式符合该地区未来气候情景的区域气候模型模拟结果。因此，它们可以被解释为气候变化在巴伐利亚南部正在顺利进行的迹象，就像在世界上的大多数地方一样。