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Improving outcomes for socioeconomic variables with coastal vulnerability index under significant sea-level rise: an approach from Mumbai coasts
Environment, Development and Sustainability ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-05 , DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01239-w
Malay Kumar Pramanik , Poli Dash , Dimple Behal

Climate change has led to increased sea levels, which are caused by a complex interplay of the physical environment components from coastal areas, causing the rise in storm surge, erosion and flooding. In this scenario, the low-lying topography of the Mumbai region is highly susceptible to sea level-induced flooding and coastal erosion due to the increasing number of economic activities. The unsustainable urbanization, unplanned development, and huge land conversion lead to the destruction of this region lead to the destruction of mangroves and filled waterways with construction debris which makes the region more vulnerable to flooding due to inadequate drainage, overflow and absence of natural protectors. These human-induced factors and their impacts remain unknown. Therefore, the study uses four socioeconomic variables (CVI4) with five geological (CVI5) and three geological variables (CVI8; with integrating CVI5) to assess the role of developmental and socio-economic activities in overall coastal vulnerability (CVI12) analysis. To quantify the importance of the combined variables and understand the response, random forest (RF) model was also used. This study selected four different iterations with integrating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of all variables to determine the significant causes behind that have an impact on coastal vulnerability index (CVI). The results show that CVI5 and CVI8 contributed 7.8% and 36.9%, respectively, whereas CVI4 contributed 55.3% to the CVI12. The response curve shows that the influence of these variables is an increasing trend to CVI12 and the results of CVI12 are highly correlated with socioeconomic index variables (r = 0.84, p = 0.001) which indicates the socio-economic variables played a major role towards the coastal vulnerability of the region. It suggests that unsustainable urbanization, unplanned development and coastal erosion increasing pressure make Mumbai and Kurla region more vulnerable to flood. Accordingly, CVI12 results show 55.83 km of the shoreline surveyed, being very low vulnerable, a moderate vulnerability of 60.91 km, while a high vulnerability of 50.75 km is considered to be very high. The results may be used as a guide in formulating policies to mitigate and adjust the Mumbai coast as the rise in sea level is expected to cause more frequent coastal floods, etc.



中文翻译:

在海平面显着上升的情况下利用沿海脆弱性指数改善社会经济变量的结果:孟买沿海的一种方法

气候变化导致海平面上升,这是由于沿海地区的物理环境组成部分之间复杂的相互作用造成的,从而导致风暴潮,水土流失和洪水泛滥。在这种情况下,由于经济活动数量的增加,孟买地区的低地势极易受到海平面引发的洪水和海岸侵蚀的影响。不可持续的城市化,计划外的开发以及大量的土地流转导致该地区的破坏,导致红树林和充满建筑碎屑的水道被破坏,这导致该地区由于排水不足,溢流和缺乏自然保护者而更容易遭受洪水泛滥。这些人为因素及其影响仍然未知。因此,该研究使用四个社会经济变量(CVI4),五个地质变量(CVI5)和三个地质变量(CVI8;整合了CVI5)来评估发展和社会经济活动在总体沿海脆弱性(CVI12)分析中的作用。为了量化组合变量的重要性并了解响应,还使用了随机森林(RF)模型。这项研究选择了四个不同的迭代,将所有变量的基于像素的差分加权秩值进行积分,以确定对沿海脆弱性指数(CVI)有影响的重要原因。结果表明,CVI5和CVI8分别贡献了7.8%和36.9%,而CVI4贡献了55.3%。r  = 0.84,p  = 0.001),表明社会经济变量对该地区的沿海脆弱性起了重要作用。它表明,不可持续的城市化,计划外的发展以及沿海侵蚀增加了压力,使孟买和库拉地区更容易遭受洪水的侵袭。因此,CVI12结果显示,所调查海岸线的55.83公里,脆弱性非常低,中等脆弱性为60.91 km,而高度脆弱性50.75 km被认为是非常高。研究结果可作为制定减轻和调整孟买海岸政策的指南,因为预计海平面上升将导致更频繁的沿海洪水等。

更新日期:2021-02-05
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