Abstract

Nicholas Kaldor made much of the Verdoorn’s Law and the objective of this paper is to examine the validity of this alleged law and whether it justifies special treatment to manufacturing. This paper reviews the Smith-Young approach to increasing returns and shows that Kaldor was not much guided by this framework when it came to policy making. He was more guided by empirical observations with respect to the applicability of Verdoorn’s Law. The paper also critically reviews Verdoorn’s Law particularly in so far as Verdoorn himself was not fully convinced of its general applicability. The correspondence between Kaldor and Lauchlin Currie (and Roger Sandilands) is also highlighted in this regard and brings out their differing views on both agriculture and industry. The paper’s main conclusion is that even if Verdoorn’s Law is valid it does not call for a special treatment to manufacturing. The logic of favoring manufacturing at the cost of other sectors distorts intersectoral relationships, leads to adverse terms of trade for agriculture, and is likely to pose a demand constraint for industry itself. To undo one distortion (i.e., protection to industry), one has to match it with other distortions like price support and marketing board in agriculture, and dual exchange rates to promote exports. The whole economic system becomes an intricate maze with adverse consequences for growth and productivity for the whole economy.

摘要

尼古拉斯·卡尔多（Nicholas Kaldor）制定了维尔多定律（Verdoorn's Law），本文的目的是检验该被指称法律的有效性，以及它是否有理由对制造业进行特殊对待。本文回顾了史密斯-杨（Smith-Young）提高回报的方法，并表明，卡尔多在制定政策时不受该框架的指导。关于韦多恩定律的适用性，他受到经验性观察的指导。该论文还对范多恩定律进行了严格的审查，特别是在范多恩本人尚未完全确信其普遍适用性的情况下。在这方面，还强调了卡尔多和劳奇林·柯里（以及罗杰·桑迪兰兹）之间的对应关系，并提出了他们对农业和工业的不同看法。该论文的主要结论是，即使维尔多定律有效，也不要求对制造进行特殊处理。以其他部门为代价而青睐制造业的逻辑扭曲了部门间的关系，导致了不利于农业的贸易条件，并可能对工业本身构成需求限制。为了消除一种扭曲（即对工业的保护），必须将其与其他扭曲相匹配，例如农业的价格支持和营销委员会，以及双重汇率以促进出口。整个经济体系变得错综复杂，对整个经济的增长和生产力产生不利影响。并可能对行业本身构成需求限制。为了消除一种扭曲（即对工业的保护），必须将其与其他扭曲相匹配，例如农业的价格支持和营销委员会，以及双重汇率以促进出口。整个经济体系变得错综复杂，对整个经济的增长和生产力产生不利影响。并可能对行业本身构成需求限制。为了消除一种扭曲（即对工业的保护），必须将其与其他扭曲相匹配，例如农业的价格支持和营销委员会，以及双重汇率以促进出口。整个经济体系变得错综复杂，对整个经济的增长和生产力产生不利影响。