We examine anchoring to the price paid at purchase during an important cycle in Connecticut, 2000–2017 which is similar to cycles in many other states. Our repeat sales model, which mitigates endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity, provides robust estimates of negotiated price premiums (discounts) of sellers with expected losses (expected gains). Our model bridges from individual to aggregate price responses, and it supports new stylized facts about housing market cycles. Results suggest that anchoring was associated with reductions in observed changes in house prices during the boom (2004–2006) as sellers with gains dominate with their price discounts, and with reduced price declines during the bust (2007–2012) when the behavior of those with losses becomes important. Additional results making minimal model assumptions suggest that loss behavior is statistically significant and important at turning points, i.e., during the transition from a boom to a bust and vice versa. Double mean differences suggest that those with losses used the mild recovery as an opportunity to realize losses at reduced premiums after long delays.

我们在2000-2017年的一个重要周期内考察了锚定购买价格的情况，这与许多其他州的周期相似。我们的重复销售模型减轻了内生性和未观察到的异质性，它提供了带有预期损失（预期收益）的卖方协商的价格溢价（折扣）的可靠估计。我们的模型从个人价格响应到总体价格响应之间架起了桥梁，并支持有关房地产市场周期的新的程式化事实。结果表明，锚定与繁荣时期（2004-2006年）观察到的房价变化减少相关，因为收益增加的卖方主要是其价格折扣，而萧条时期（2007-2012年）的行为则使价格下跌的幅度减小。损失变得很重要。做出最小化模型假设的其他结果表明，损失行为在转折点上具有统计意义，并且很重要，例如，在从动臂过渡到萧条的过程中，反之亦然。双重均值差异表明，那些遭受损失的人利用温和的复苏作为在长期拖延后以降低的保费实现损失的机会。