Context

Habitat connectivity is essential for the long-term persistence of species, but is commonly disregarded in climate change impact studies. The Tibetan Plateau contains a biome rich in endemic ungulates, which are highly sensitive to climatic variations and deserve particular attention in conservation planning against climate change.

Objectives

We evaluated the response and vulnerability of habitat connectivity to climate change for four ungulate species endemic to the Tibetan Plateau, and examined the robustness of protected areas (PAs) for the conservation of these species under climate change.

Methods

For each focal species, we developed ecological niche models to predict the spatial variations in habitat under climate change and conducted a network-theoretical analysis to estimate the consequent changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, we used the circuit theory to characterize dispersal patterns of these species and conducted gap analyses to estimate the contribution of existing PAs to the conservation of these species.

Results

The four focal species will experience a remarkable connectivity loss that outpaced their habitat loss in response to climate change. Currently, 53.39 and 46.64% of the areas that could contribute to the habitat suitability and connectivity, respectively, of these species are unprotected. These values could further increase under future climate conditions.

Conclusions

Climate-driven habitat variations may lead to the loss of key connectivity areas between the habitats of ungulates, causing disproportionate decrease in habitat connectivity. The existing PAs on the Tibetan Plateau are not robust for the conservation of the four ungulates. Adjustment of certain key PAs may help to address the conservation gaps.

中文翻译：

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气候变化，生境连通性和保护缺口：以青藏高原特有的四种有蹄类物种为例

语境

生境的连通性对于物种的长期生存至关重要，但在气候变化影响研究中通常不予考虑。青藏高原的生物群系富含地方有蹄类动物，它们对气候变化高度敏感，因此在应对气候变化的保护规划中应特别注意。

目标

我们评估了青藏高原特有的四个有蹄类物种对气候变化的响应和脆弱性，并研究了保护区（PA）在气候变化下保护这些物种的鲁棒性。

方法

对于每个重点物种，我们开发了生态位模型来预测气候变化下栖息地的空间变化，并进行了网络理论分析以评估随之而来的栖息地连通性变化。此外，我们使用电路理论来表征这些物种的扩散模式，并进行了差距分析，以评估现有PA对这些物种的保护的贡献。

结果

四种主要物种将因气候变化而经历明显的连通性损失，其栖息地损失将超过其栖息地的损失。目前，分别有53.39和46.64％的区域可能没有保护这些物种的栖息地适宜性和连通性。在未来的气候条件下，这些价值可能会进一步增加。

结论

由气候驱动的栖息地变化可能导致有蹄类动物的栖息地之间失去关键的连通性区域，从而导致栖息地连通性的下降过多。青藏高原上现有的保护区对四只有蹄类动物的保护能力不强。调整某些关键的保护区可能有助于弥补保护差距。