Objectives

Crime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day.

Methods

We put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations.

Results

The results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day.

Conclusion

Our extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.

中文翻译：

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正确的地点正确的时间？使犯罪模式理论具有特定时间

目标

犯罪模式理论和相关的实证研究仍然是暂时的，似乎日常活动和犯罪的时机不起作用。在以前的犯罪研究地理基础上，我们扩展了犯罪模式理论，并提出，在日常例行活动中获得的犯罪者的空间知识并非同样适用于一天中的所有时间。

方法

通过将离散的空间选择模型应用于来自荷兰的详细信息，我们对这一扩展理论进行了首次实证检验，该模型是通过独特的在线调查工具从荷兰收集的有关30名罪犯所犯的71种罪行的详细信息。犯罪者报告了他们过去一年中最重要的活动节点和犯罪地点，以及他们定期探访这些地点的具体时间。

结果

结果表明，将近40％的犯罪行为是在犯罪者活动节点的社区内实施的，包括一，二，三等社区在内，犯罪率上升至85％。尽管在我们的小样本中没有统计学上的显着性，但结果进一步表明，犯罪者在一天中同一时间定期探访的社区比在一天中不同时间例行探访的社区更有可能犯罪。

结论

我们对犯罪模式理论的扩展只是暂时的支持。我们主张在没有确切结论之前，应进行较大样本的复制研究。