This article examines the history of the Royal Dutch Shell scenarios, from the first horizon scan exercise in 1967. It proposes that forward-looking scenarios were integrated in planning at Shell as tools for managing uncertainty in global time and space relations of oil after 1967. Specifically, the article proposes that Shell strategically used the scenarios to respond to arguments, emanating both from OPEC and from the Club of Rome, of oil as a limited resource. Shell used the scenarios to create images of a future oil market dominated by innovation, creativity, and sustainable solutions.

中文翻译：

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攻壳机动队：场景工具和荷兰皇家壳牌世界的制作

本文回顾了自1967年进行的第一次水平视野扫描以来荷兰皇家壳牌公司情景的历史。它提出将前瞻性方案整合到壳牌公司的规划中，作为管理1967年后全球石油时空关系不确定性的工具。具体而言，本文提出，壳牌从战略上利用这些情景来回应欧佩克和罗马俱乐部提出的将石油作为有限资源的论点。壳牌公司使用这些场景来创建以创新，创造力和可持续解决方案为主导的未来石油市场的图像。