Based on β and σ convergence analysis, we find a high persistence of innovation gaps for international innovation indices reported by the European Commission. Our research confirms the diverging scientific potential across the analyzed economies. Estimation provides evidence of convergence in the case of R&D expenses and the relative position on the global technological frontier. We propose a simple fixed effect panel regression measuring relative innovativeness potential. Our model suggests that current ranking leaders, i.e., Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, and Finland) and Germany, are likely to further outpace the United States. Central and Eastern European countries are achieving the greatest relative gains but are unlikely to exceed 70% of US potential. Peripheral European countries, South Africa, Turkey, and Russia are projected to further lose their innovativeness position despite their weaker initial position.

中文翻译：

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适度的创新者陷阱—世界经济中是否发生了创新绩效的融合？

基于β和σ收敛分析，我们发现欧盟委员会报告的国际创新指数存在很高的创新差距。我们的研究证实了在所分析的经济体中科学潜力的差异。估算为研发费用和在全球技术前沿的相对地位提供了收敛的证据。我们提出了一个简单的固定效应面板回归测量相对创新潜力。我们的模型表明，当前排名领先者，即北欧国家（瑞典，丹麦和芬兰）和德国，可能会进一步超过美国。中欧和东欧国家正在取得最大的相对收益，但不太可能超过美国潜力的70％。欧洲外围国家，南非，土耳其，