Global warming is affecting the Earth's surface temperature and consequently the intensity of near-surface airstreams and wind power potential in many regions. Conversely, global wind power installed capacity is continuously growing during the last years. The economic viability and sustainability of centralized wind projects relies heavily on wind resources, efficient technologies, and an attractive and dynamic Feed-in-Tariff (FIT). Therefore, this study assesses the potential effect of global warming on the life-cycle techno-economic viability of future wind power projects in Central Asia, specifically in Kazakhstan. Hence, the Ereymentau Wind Power Plant (WPP) in the Northern region of Kazakhstan was selected as case study. Historic data showed that monthly averaged wind speed and ambient pressure can be treated as statistically stationary, and only the air density drop due to temperature increase of 0.2°C per decade is assumed in the present study. Our results predict a reduction in Net Present Value, Benefit–Cost Ratio, and Internal Rate of Return of 29 million KZT, of 0.0015, and 0.03%, respectively, in the lifetime of Ereymentau WPP. Moreover, an Equity payback increase of 0.4 years and a drop of 987 tCO_2e in GHG emission reductions are projected. Consequently, our results indicate that global warming, despite of being a global problem of significance, would have a negligible impact in ongoing plans to develop the wind potential in Northern regions of Eurasian countries sharing similar conditions to those present in Ereymentau-Kazakhstan.

中文翻译：

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全球变暖对中亚风电生产的潜在影响

全球变暖正在影响地球表面温度，从而影响许多地区的近地表气流强度和风力发电潜力。相反，全球风电装机容量在过去几年持续增长。集中式风电项目的经济可行性和可持续性在很大程度上依赖于风资源、高效技术以及有吸引力和动态的上网电价 (FIT)。因此，本研究评估了全球变暖对中亚未来风电项目生命周期技术经济可行性的潜在影响，特别是在哈萨克斯坦。因此，选择哈萨克斯坦北部地区的 Ereymentau 风力发电厂 (WPP) 作为案例研究。历史数据表明，月平均风速和环境压力可以视为统计平稳，本研究仅假设空气密度每十年升高 0.2°C 导致空气密度下降。我们的结果预测，在 Ereymentau WPP 的生命周期内，净现值、收益成本比和内部收益率将分别减少 2900 万科威特第纳尔、0.0015 和 0.03%。此外，股权投资回报增加 0.4 年，减少 987 tCO_2e的温室气体减排量预计。因此，我们的结果表明，尽管全球变暖是一个重大的全球性问题，但对欧亚国家北部地区开发风能潜力的正在进行的计划的影响可以忽略不计，这些地区与 Ereymentau-Kazakhstan 的条件相似。