The peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a poylphagous and serious insect pest of horticultural crops. The purpose of study was to understand the spatial and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of B. zonata in response to climate change-based variations in temperature across the India. To examine the likely possibilities of changes in abundance and distribution of B. zonata, temperature driven process based phenology models were linked with climatic data of multiple General Circulation Model (eight models) and climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. The risk indices (establishment, generation, and activity index) were mapped and quantified the changes in respect to locations, scenarios, models and times (2050 & 2070). The risk indices results revealed that, 1.73 (0.8–1.0 establishment risk), 14.15 (>16 high abundance) and 59.69% (>8.0 generation per year) area is projected to be highly suitable for B. zonata regarding establishment, abundance and generation indices, respectively in India under current climatic conditions. In spite of decreased permanent establishment (Establishment Risk Index > 0.6) in future climatic conditions, it is predicted that abundance and generation indices would increase in all the locations of the country. The variation in the results due to use of multiple GCM-scenario combinations suggested that choice of GCM and scenario combinations have impact on future prediction of the species. Overall, results indicate that B. zonata would be significant threat to horticultural crops in India. Therefore, present findings are of immensly useful to provide important information to design integrated pest management strategies and phytosanitary measurements for local, regional and national level to restrain the insect pest activity across different layers.

桃果蝇Bactrocera zonata（Saunders）（Diptera：Tephritidae）是一种食草性和严重的园艺作物害虫。研究的目的是了解印度洋中基于气候变化的温度变化，带状芽孢杆菌种群数量和分布的时空变化。为了研究zonata B.丰度和分布变化的可能可能性，使用昆虫生命周期建模（ILCYM）软件，将基于温度驱动过程的物候模型与多个通用循环模型（八个模型）和气候变化情景（RCP 2.6、4.5、6.0和8.5）的气候数据相关联。绘制了风险指数（建立，生成和活动指数）并量化了与位置，方案，模型和时间有关的变化（2050和2070）。风险指数结果显示，预计1.73（0.8-1.0的建立风险），14.15（> 16的高丰度）和59.69％（每年> 8.0的发电量）区域非常适合于带状芽孢杆菌。关于当前气候条件下印度的建立，丰度和世代指数。尽管在未来的气候条件下永久性机构的数量减少（机构风险指数> 0.6），但预计该国所有地区的丰度和世代指数都会增加。由于使用了多个GCM-情景组合而导致的结果变化表明，GCM和情景组合的选择会对物种的未来预测产生影响。总体而言，结果表明B. zonata将对印度的园艺作物构成重大威胁。因此，目前的发现对于提供重要信息，以设计综合的有害生物管理策略和植物检疫措施，以在地方，区域和国家层面提供重要信息，以限制跨不同层次的有害生物活动。