We tested hypothesis that inclusion of the disease resistance indicator traits in a dairy goats’ breeding goal would result to increased profitability of smallholder farmers. Deterministic simulation was used to compare responses for breeding schemes without (Scheme I) and with (Schemes II, III and IV) disease resistance in the breeding goal. Faecal egg count (FEC) and somatic cell score (SCS) were used as the indicator traits for helminthosis and mastitis in goats, respectively. We also investigated the effect of risk aversion among the smallholder farmers on response to selection. The breeding structure consisted of a two-tier closed nucleus system, with recording and genetic evaluations being undertaken in the nucleus. Breeding schemes differed on the number of traits in the selection criteria and number of records used to estimate breeding values. In Scheme I, traits in the breeding goal included milk yield (MY), live weight (LW), average daily gain (ADG), doe mature weight (DMW), number of kids weaned (NKW) and survival rate (SR). Scheme II was similar to Scheme I, but included records of FEC and SCS measured immediately after weaning and during early lactation, respectively. Scheme III was similar to II, but with additional information on SCS recorded at mid-lactation, while Scheme IV was similar to III with more SCS information recorded in late-lactation. Our findings indicate that schemes that included disease resistance indicator traits in the selection criteria (Schemes II, III and IV) were 28, 24 and 19%, respectively superior in profitability to Scheme I. Profitability for Scheme II was 3.5 and 7.6% higher than for Schemes III and IV, respectively. The response to selection was maximized when the nucleus consisted of 4–5% of the does’ effective population size and 20% of them were phenotyped for SCS. High risk aversion tended to result in low profits. This suggests that use of economic values obtained using low risk aversion models could overestimate the economic worth of a breeding program especially in smallholder production systems where farmers are risk averse.

我们检验了以下假设：在奶山羊的育种目标中包含抗病指标特性会导致小农户的利润增加。确定性模拟用于比较育种目标中无（方案I）和有（方案II，III和IV）抗病性的育种方案的响应。粪便卵数（FEC）和体细胞分数（SCS）分别用作山羊蠕虫病和乳腺炎的指标性状。我们还调查了小农户的风险规避对选择反应的影响。繁殖结构由两层封闭的核系统组成，在核中进行记录和遗传评估。育种方案在选择标准中的性状数量和用于估计育种价值的记录数量方面有所不同。在方案I中，育种目标的特征包括产奶量（MY），活重（LW），平均日增重（ADG），母猪成熟体重（DMW），断奶孩子数（NKW）和存活率（SR）。方案II类似于方案I，但是包括分别在断奶后和哺乳早期分别测量的FEC和SCS记录。方案III类似于II，但是在泌乳中期记录有关于SCS的附加信息，而方案IV类似于III，在泌乳后期记录了更多的SCS信息。我们的发现表明，在选择标准中（方案II，III和IV）包括抗病指标特征的方案分别为28％，24％和19％，计划II的盈利能力分别比计划III和IV分别高3.5和7.6％。当细胞核中有4–5％的有效种群大小组成并且其中20％的细胞表型为SCS时，对选择的反应就会最大化。高风险规避倾向导致低利润。这表明使用通过低风险厌恶模型获得的经济价值可能会高估育种计划的经济价值，尤其是在农民厌恶风险的小农生产系统中。高风险厌恶倾向导致低利润。这表明使用通过低风险厌恶模型获得的经济价值可能会高估育种计划的经济价值，尤其是在农民厌恶风险的小农生产系统中。高风险厌恶倾向导致低利润。这表明使用通过低风险厌恶模型获得的经济价值可能会高估育种计划的经济价值，尤其是在农民厌恶风险的小农生产系统中。