Abstract

Dongying City is located in the northeast of Shandong Province and is the central city of the Yellow River Delta. It has abundant oil and gas resources, vast saline-alkali land area, and saline brine as the main groundwater. Therefore, freshwater resources are poor, as there is a contradiction in the water supply and its demand. Judging the trend of sustainable utilization of water resources in Dongying City has an important role in promoting the local conservation and exploitation of water resources, recycling water resources, and undermining the contradiction between supply and demand of urban water resources. In this paper, 21 indicators have been selected to build the index system for judging the sustainable utilization of water resources. In addition, the DPSIR model is used to evaluate the sustainable utilization trend of water resources in Dongying City from 2005 through 2017. On the other hand, the GM (1, 1) model is considered to predict the sustainable potential-utilization of water resources in Dongying City from 2019 through 2025. The results demonstrated that the sustainable utilization of water resources in Dongying City shows an increasing trend from 2005 to 2017, So that the highest and lowest values are in 2017 and 2005, respectively. In addition, the sustainable potential-utilization of water resources in Dongying City may indicate a continuous upward trend from 2019 through 2025. Rainfall, runoff of the Yellow River and water resources per capita are the main factors affecting the sustainable utilization of water resources. According to the continuous improvement of residents' awareness of water saving and water-saving level, the development and exploitation of water resources will be more and more reasonable.

中文翻译：

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东营市水资源可持续利用趋势分析

摘要

东营市位于山东省东北部，是黄河三角洲的中心城市。它拥有丰富的石油和天然气资源，广阔的盐碱地面积，以盐水为主要地下水。因此，由于水的供应和需求矛盾，淡水资源很贫乏。判断东营市水资源可持续利用的趋势，对促进当地水资源的节约与开发，水资源的循环利用，破坏城市水资源的供需矛盾具有重要作用。本文选择了21个指标来建立评价水资源可持续利用的指标体系。此外，DPSIR模型用于评估东营市2005年至2017年水资源的可持续利用趋势。另一方面，采用GM（1，1）模型来预测东营市水资源的可持续利用潜力。从2019年到2025年。结果表明，东营市水资源的可持续利用从2005年到2017年呈增长趋势，因此最高和最低值分别在2017年和2005年。此外，东营市水资源可持续利用潜力可能表明，2019年至2025年将持续增长。降雨，黄河径流和人均水资源是影响水资源可持续利用的主要因素。根据居民生活水平的不断提高