According to previous studies, major workforce downsizings are commonly preceded by increased employee turnover due to ‘early leavers’. There is a common belief that early leavers are winners in terms of re-employment. This seven-year follow-up study based on register data from Finland questions if this is a valid finding in the Nordic context. We set the hypothesis that early leavers are not undisputed winners compared with those who leave during the actual downsizing. Trajectory and sequence analyses were used to test the hypothesis. Six employment trajectories were identified, ranging from permanently strong to permanently weak labor market attachment. Supporting the hypothesis, the early leavers assumed more commonly the weak and less commonly the strong employment trajectory. However, within the weak employment group, the early leavers and ultimately displaced workers were equal in terms of unemployment and retiring, as well as within the strong employment group in terms

中文翻译：

---

早期离开者是幸运者吗？

根据以前的研究，主要是在裁员之前，由于“提前离职”而导致员工流动率增加。人们普遍认为，就再就业而言，早退者是赢家。这项为期七年的后续研究基于芬兰的登记数据，质疑在北欧情况下这是否是一个有效的发现。我们提出这样的假设：与实际裁员期间离职的人相比，提前离职的人不是无可争议的赢家。使用轨迹和序列分析来检验假设。确定了六种就业轨迹，从长期坚挺的劳动力市场依恋到永久疲弱的劳动力。为支持这一假设，提前离开者通常假设较弱的就业轨迹，而较不普遍地假定较强劲的就业轨迹。但是，在弱势就业群体中，