Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the on-going COVID-19 pandemic and its potential influence on tourist behaviour in the short- to medium-term. While the influence of the pandemic on tourist’s perceived risk and its impact on their future travel behaviour is understandably yet to be established, the present paper discusses the potential nexus. Additionally, this paper provides tourism practitioners with some recommendations for mitigating the effect of potential heightened perceived risk on travel and tourism decision-making post the COVID-19 crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The present paper synthesises contemporary academic literature on perceived risk and post-crisis tourism with emerging information associated with the unfolding COVID-19 crisis.

Findings

This paper draws empirical evidence from studies related to previous health crises and their impact on tourism, as well as tourist behaviour. By discussing previous studies within the context of the on-going COVID-19, it is possible to anticipate the influence that perceived risk associated with the pandemic may have on the post-crisis behaviour of tourists. Also, short-term measures to mitigate the effects of risk on tourism are posited to guide practitioners in the future recovery of the sector.

Research limitations/implications

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented and on-going crisis for the global tourism industry. Hence, the present paper serves as a primer to a broader discussion within the tourism discourse and provides theoretical direction for future tourism research.

Practical implications

Key to the recovery of the global tourism industry will be encouraging both domestic and international tourism activity. However, while the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on tourist behaviour is yet to be substantiated, previous research predicts a situation of heightened perceived risk and the potential cognitive dissonance that may negatively influence tourist decision-making. To mitigate this potential effect, governance, augmented immigration policy, destination media profiling, recovery marketing and domestic tourism will be critical interventions.

Originality/value

This paper is one of the first to discuss the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the post-crisis decision-making process of tourists and their conative behaviour. As a primer to further empirical research, this paper sets a pertinent research agenda for academic inquiry within an evolving and increasingly uncertain global tourism market.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 危机后的旅行行为：减轻感知风险的影响

目的

本文的目的是深入了解正在进行的 COVID-19 大流行及其对中短期旅游行为的潜在影响。虽然大流行对游客感知风险的影响及其对他们未来旅行行为的影响尚待确定，但本文讨论了潜在的联系。此外，本文为旅游从业者提供了一些建议，以减轻 COVID-19 危机后潜在的高感知风险对旅行和旅游决策的影响。

设计/方法/方法

本论文综合了有关感知风险和危机后旅游业的当代学术文献，以及与正在发生的 COVID-19 危机相关的新兴信息。

发现

本文从与以前的健康危机及其对旅游业的影响以及游客行为相关的研究中汲取经验证据。通过在正在进行的 COVID-19 的背景下讨论以前的研究，可以预测与大流行相关的感知风险可能对游客的危机后行为产生的影响。此外，还提出了减轻旅游业风险影响的短期措施，以指导从业者未来该行业的复苏。

研究限制/影响

COVID-19 大流行对全球旅游业来说是一场前所未有的持续危机。因此，本文作为旅游话语中更广泛讨论的引子，并为未来的旅游研究提供理论方向。

实际影响

全球旅游业复苏的关键将是鼓励国内和国际旅游活动。然而，虽然 COVID-19 危机对游客行为的影响尚未得到证实，但之前的研究预测，感知风险的增加和潜在的认知失调可能会对游客的决策产生负面影响。为了减轻这种潜在影响，治理、加强移民政策、目的地媒体分析、复苏营销和国内旅游将是关键干预措施。

原创性/价值

本文是最早讨论 COVID-19 大流行对游客的危机后决策过程及其暗示行为的潜在影响的论文之一。作为进一步实证研究的入门书，本文为在不断变化和日益不确定的全球旅游市场中的学术探究设定了相关的研究议程。