The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the significant indicators of macroeconomic environment that influence credit risk in high-income countries.,The study employs the system generalized method of moments estimator to avoid the dynamic panel bias and endogeneity issues. Different indices of economic growth are used in each model in order to find the most significant proxy of the economic cycle that influences problem loans. The analysis is carried out using a sample of 49 developed countries covering a 16-year period (2000–2015).,The overall empirical results highlight that the development of industrial sectors and exports are the main drivers of loan performance in high-income countries. The findings specifically recommend adopting an expansionary fiscal policy to boost per capita income and potential productivity for the safety of the banking system.,The findings have direct practical applicability for stabilizing the financial system. The study recommends the government to increase the productivity of export-oriented industries in order to boost employment and increase the payment obligations of individuals and business firms. More importantly, it highlights the essentiality of perfect economic policy to control default risks.,To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study that compares the relative effect of three alternative proxies of the economic cycle on credit risk and identifies the most significant proxy. The current study also empirically shows that industrial development could be one of the crucial factors to improve financial health in developed countries.

中文翻译：

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信用风险的宏观经济决定因素：高收入国家的证据

本文的目的是实证评估影响高收入国家信贷风险的宏观经济环境的重要指标。本研究采用系统的矩估计量的广义方法来避免动态面板偏差和内生性问题。在每个模型中使用不同的经济增长指标，以便找到影响问题贷款的经济​​周期的最重要指标。分析使用了49个发达国家进行了为期16年（2000-2015年）的样本进行。总体实证结果表明，工业部门的发展和出口是高收入国家贷款绩效的主要驱动力。调查结果特别建议采取扩张性的财政政策，以提高人均收入和潜在生产率，以确保银行系统的安全。研究结果对于稳定金融体系具有直接的实际适用性。该研究建议政府提高出口型产业的生产率，以促进就业并增加个人和商业公司的支付义务。更重要的是，它强调了控制违约风险的完美经济政策的必要性。据作者所知，这是第一项比较经济周期的三个替代指标对信用风险的相对影响并进行识别的实证研究。最重要的代理。